Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.404267 0.466092 0.533230 0.611425 0.699865 0.796655 0.910468
2025-10-12 0.314619 0.403188 0.508627 0.642768 0.808187 1.004753 1.255212
2025-10-19 0.258370 0.358306 0.485644 0.658403 0.885065 1.170513 1.555128
2025-10-26 0.217074 0.321667 0.462702 0.664442 0.942807 1.310124 1.827556
2025-11-02 0.184239 0.289622 0.439024 0.662874 0.985541 1.428738 2.077164
2025-11-09 0.156555 0.259935 0.413410 0.653291 1.012987 1.525114 2.300062
2025-11-16 0.134425 0.234912 0.390631 0.643698 1.037124 1.615854 2.518613
2025-11-23 0.113829 0.209070 0.362904 0.622437 1.040024 1.673527 2.690345
2025-11-30 0.107386 0.205653 0.369968 0.655919 1.129231 1.865624 3.075393
2025-12-07 0.092852 0.186072 0.347886 0.639018 1.135671 1.929324 3.265527
2025-12-14 0.080248 0.168118 0.326304 0.620223 1.136390 1.982578 3.440833
2025-12-21 0.070318 0.153740 0.309242 0.607149 1.144843 2.047729 3.637963
2025-12-28 0.065127 0.148122 0.307866 0.622578 1.204921 2.204227 3.999155
2026-01-04 0.062230 0.146811 0.314495 0.653448 1.295073 2.418046 4.471267
2026-01-11 0.057888 0.141817 0.313334 0.669239 1.358684 2.589644 4.880931
2026-01-18 0.053024 0.134957 0.307597 0.675362 1.404366 2.731969 5.247254
2026-01-25 0.047998 0.126965 0.298545 0.673770 1.434768 2.848036 5.572741
2026-02-01 0.042859 0.117922 0.286187 0.664045 1.448204 2.933298 5.846712
2026-02-08 0.038322 0.109624 0.274446 0.654308 1.460484 3.016575 6.121031
2026-02-15 0.033475 0.099766 0.258017 0.632729 1.446650 3.048805 6.300896
2026-02-22 0.032808 0.100690 0.266499 0.666712 1.550392 3.314033 6.937588
2026-03-01 0.029024 0.092644 0.252867 0.649559 1.544632 3.363740 7.161190
2026-03-08 0.025567 0.084914 0.239042 0.630483 1.532952 3.400410 7.360574